Sunday, July 27, 2008
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Carl Icahn overrated?
Sure Icahn is smarter and richer than I will ever be but this image is pretty damning evidence that Icahn ain't perfect. In fact, after looking at this guys recent track record I wonder how the hell he makes his money as a "successfull" activist? There is a whole lotta red on those his picks...
In other news, I decided to dump Moly and TC because apparently no one uses metals anymore in this global slowdown ;-)
In other news, I decided to dump Moly and TC because apparently no one uses metals anymore in this global slowdown ;-)
Monday, July 14, 2008
Moly's looking good...
Of course I am taking about the 42nd atomic element: Molybdenum (aka Moly)
Long story short, because I believe in a "World of Shortages" (thx TraderMark) I am bullish on the minerals complex (copper, iron, etc.) but moly (short for molybdenum) is my favorite. Supply is constrained until mid-2010 at the earliest, meanwhile it's use in oil drilling, fuel transportation pipes, and refining is growing significantly. Why? Moly has the 6th highest melting point of any element as is often used as as super alloy for steel products.
Anyway, the best pure moly play I can find in this space is TC. TC's 2009 EPS growth is around 40% (it's forward PE is less than 8!). I like stocks with these types of margins of safety; I mean what's it going to do? Trade down to a 5 PE? TC is not Wamu or Citigroup :-) Of course please do your own homework before buying this stock.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Tough times for everyone I guess...
Apparently, even the Catholic Church is feeling the effects of a slowing global economy. Let's not forget the Vatican's exposure to the devalued U.S. Peso.
On a serious note, here's my trend following thought of the day...
With the impending Fanny and Freddy bailout to the tune of at least $400 billion (I have read that Fanny and Fred's combined exposure to Alt A & Subprime is closer to $1.5 trillion!), I am betting a lot of treasury holders will start to question our nation's AAA rating and begin to buy gold. This seems like a reasonable train of thought, nevertheless, I am having an economist friend check out the rationality of this thought as we speak/type. I think that investors will at least flock to gold because the Govt. is definitely going to keep the printing presses working overtime (at least to the tune of $400 bln to $1.5 trillion dollars). I will probably buy some GLD tomorrow, assuming it is still under $100 (aka $1000).
P.S. Karl Marx is laughing his ass off, while Larry Kudlow is crying in his home made "Goldilocks porridge" this evening. And if you buy the GLD because of me, you might lose money. Paraphrasing "The Fly" at IBC is always fun.
On a serious note, here's my trend following thought of the day...
With the impending Fanny and Freddy bailout to the tune of at least $400 billion (I have read that Fanny and Fred's combined exposure to Alt A & Subprime is closer to $1.5 trillion!), I am betting a lot of treasury holders will start to question our nation's AAA rating and begin to buy gold. This seems like a reasonable train of thought, nevertheless, I am having an economist friend check out the rationality of this thought as we speak/type. I think that investors will at least flock to gold because the Govt. is definitely going to keep the printing presses working overtime (at least to the tune of $400 bln to $1.5 trillion dollars). I will probably buy some GLD tomorrow, assuming it is still under $100 (aka $1000).
P.S. Karl Marx is laughing his ass off, while Larry Kudlow is crying in his home made "Goldilocks porridge" this evening. And if you buy the GLD because of me, you might lose money. Paraphrasing "The Fly" at IBC is always fun.
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Revelation...
my blog is awful. How awful? I forgot my password for 10 minutes (yeah it's so bad that I subconsciously never wanted to see it again). Fortunately, I won't let this blog fall apart, I plan on writing at least one post everyday about an interesting investment theme/stock pick that I have come across. I haven't been doing so the past 2 weeks and as a result I've got too many ideas stuck in my head.
One idea I am getting very interested in are lithium ion batteries for cars. Why? In a nutshell, since the arrival of Henry Ford's Model-T one-hundred years ago, the internal combustion engine has basically stayed the same, but now thanks to rapacious U.S. oil consumption (20,000,000 bpd plus baby!), lack of infrastructure investments by MNOC's and NOC's (multinational and nationalized oil companies -thanks EXM and OPEC for having no excess capacity), astonishing BRIC demand (granted Brazil and Russia are basically net exporters), and incredibly large amounts of liquidity that just flood the trading pits (ie speculation from i-banks, and I'll bet sovereign wealth funds) we now can no longer afford to keep the traditional engine. We must look for alternatives and plug-in hybrids are likely the next step (that's where lithium comes into the picture). By the way, I still think that hydrogen is about 7-10 years away from mainstream use.
Anyway I need to do more research but so far I am leaning towards the lithium suppliers mainly due to the resource scarcity (more than 50% of world lithium reserves are in Chile) and the pricing power that comes along with that (think fertilizer companies). The largest Chilean ion supplier is SQM (15% of 2007 revenues). Like I said I need to do more research, especially since it will make my blog less awful.
P.S. If anyone buys SQM because of this post you may lose money as a result. Make sure to do your own research before investing.
One idea I am getting very interested in are lithium ion batteries for cars. Why? In a nutshell, since the arrival of Henry Ford's Model-T one-hundred years ago, the internal combustion engine has basically stayed the same, but now thanks to rapacious U.S. oil consumption (20,000,000 bpd plus baby!), lack of infrastructure investments by MNOC's and NOC's (multinational and nationalized oil companies -thanks EXM and OPEC for having no excess capacity), astonishing BRIC demand (granted Brazil and Russia are basically net exporters), and incredibly large amounts of liquidity that just flood the trading pits (ie speculation from i-banks, and I'll bet sovereign wealth funds) we now can no longer afford to keep the traditional engine. We must look for alternatives and plug-in hybrids are likely the next step (that's where lithium comes into the picture). By the way, I still think that hydrogen is about 7-10 years away from mainstream use.
Anyway I need to do more research but so far I am leaning towards the lithium suppliers mainly due to the resource scarcity (more than 50% of world lithium reserves are in Chile) and the pricing power that comes along with that (think fertilizer companies). The largest Chilean ion supplier is SQM (15% of 2007 revenues). Like I said I need to do more research, especially since it will make my blog less awful.
P.S. If anyone buys SQM because of this post you may lose money as a result. Make sure to do your own research before investing.
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