Peter Schiff on CNBC

"We [US] blew all the [borrowed] money on consumption"

"We need to go back to a sane economy"

"I'd be buying dips in commodities"

These aren't merely "dips" but I agree with the sentiment

"A major run on the dollar" is coming

We have to pay for our imports. We like all these consumer products but how do we pay for them? We can't expect the world to produce this stuff and give them nothing in return

A good question. I frankly have no idea what America's largest exports are (I would guess ag). Of course, we used to be admired for our financial creativity and expertise but that's history.

"We manufactured our way into becoming the wealthiest economy in the world and now we've consumed our way into bankruptcy"

Early Sunday muzic....

I need to go to fu**ing bed already.

Still a bear market but this rally could have legs...

I am still expecting some resistance at the SPY 91.5-92.0 region and a pullback that will snap this rally's winning streak. With that said, the market is still down more than 35% YTD so I wouldn't be surprised to see this rally continue throughout the holiday season. Even some notable short sellers are getting exposure to the long side:

Well-regarded short-seller James Montier has "Never Been More Bullish" according to Bloomberg. So what is he buying? Let's review his shopping list.

S&P 500 stocks that Montier characterizes as “deep value opportunities” based on profit and dividend yields, debt levels and price relative to earnings, here is the list:

Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI)
Carnival Corp. (CCL)
Chevron Corp. (CVX)
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Cummins Inc. (CMI)
Dow Chemical Co. (DOW)
Gap Inc. (GPS)
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)
Ingersoll-Rand Co. (IR)
KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC)
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO)
Molex Inc. (MOLX)
Nucor Corp. (NUE)
Tesoro Corp. (TSO)
Valero Energy Corp. (VLO)

Those tickers listed alone:
ATI,CCL, CVX, COP, CMI, DOW, GPS, ITW, IR, KLAC, MRO, MOLX, NUE, TSO, VLO

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is “distinctly cheap” because it trades for 15.4 times the 10-year moving average of its companies’ profits, compared with an average of 18 for the U.S. market since 1881, London-based Montier wrote in a research note today. Fifteen stocks in the U.S. index, from Chevron Corp. to Gap Inc., pass his test for “deep value,” while a tenth of shares in Europe and a fifth in Asia qualify.

What does $315 billion dollars look like?

I was curious...


Hat Tip to designverb

Friday is Judgement day for GGP and Bill Ackman...

I was kinda shocked when I read that Bill Ackman (a smart guy who's been on the right side of this financial debacle) took a position (albeit a tiny one) in GGP. In case you're unaware, GGP is a really crappy REIT, which also happens to be the 2nd largest mall owner in the country (not an auspicious sign for the country as a whole)

After the close yesterday, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital hedge fund disclosed a 7.5% stake (20,080,690 shares) in embattled REIT General Growth Properties Inc. (NYSE: GGP).

Pershing Square purchased the subject shares and the swaps, for a total consideration of $9,261,789. Trading data reveled with the filing, showed the firm was buying common stock in the $0.35-$0.51 range in November. Shares of GGP closed at $1.00 yesterday, with a 52-week low recently set at $0.24.

Now the reason why I am shocked Ackman took any position in GGP was because of how crappy the company's prospects are. In fact Friday will determine whether GGP will get taken off life-support by its creditors:

General Growth, the No. 2 mall owner in the United States, has been in talks with lenders to extend $900 million in secured mortgages on two Las Vegas shopping centers, Fashion Show mall and Shoppes at the Palazzo. It also has another $58 million due Dec. 1 on a corporate debt for Rouse, a mall company General Growth bought in 2004.

In total, the company faces $1.035 billion in debt coming due before the end of the year. Failure to refinance or extend the $900 million by Friday would trigger an event of default under the company's senior credit facility and secured portfolio facility, General Growth said in the SEC filing.

Wait. It gets better for GGP....

Next year, the Chicago-based real estate investment trust, which has over 200 malls in 45 states, faces another $3.07 billion in debt maturing. All told, General Growth is staring at $21.9 billion of debt maturing by the end of 2012.

Of course if GGP goes down tomorrow the commercial real estate market will be scared sh*tless...maybe I should pick up some SRS...hmmmmm

Anything that happens with General Growth may send jitters through the $800 billion CMBS market, said Alan Todd, head of JP Morgan CMBS research.

If GGP gets a stay of execution and rallies hard then I will totally pick up some SRS because there is no way this company will make good on $21 billion of debt obligations by 2012.

P.S. DOES ANYONE FIND IT IRONIC THAT THE 2ND LARGEST MALL OWNER IN THE U.S. MIGHT DECLARE BANKRUPTCY ON BLACK FRIDAY (THE LARGEST SHOPPING DAY OF THE YEAR)????

More evidence that treasuries are becoming overvalued....

Hat Tip to The Big Picture/Bloomberg for illustrating where we are at in terms of treasuries and stocks.


These are Barry's thoughts not mine (but I concur with most of them)
1) After a 47% freefall, Stocks have gotten relatively cheap, at least on the basis of this one metric;
2) Yields are unusually low, thanks to Fed rate cutting and a flight to safety (i.e., US Treasuries);
3) Despite the earnings carnage in the financial sector, there are many well run companies selling goods and services profitibly.
4) You can fake earnings through accounting hankypanky — but you cannot fake dividends.
5) My only caveat — if the recession is far deeper and more prolonged than even the most pessimistic forecast is for, some dividends may end up getting cut.

I am going to start nibbling at TBT but I still think 10 & 20 year yields will get pushed down some more on account of the ongoing "flight to safety" but in 2009 TBT will be a home run pick.

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!!!

Times are tough for everyone but we (ie the human race) can accomplish amazing things when faced with adversity. So enjoy tonight and be thankful for the people you currently have in your life. Be thankful for the risks that you have taken in life. I personally believe that in hindsight you will rarely regret the times you took a chance but you will always regret the times you did nothing. Make sure you do all this reflecting now because come next week the social-political-economical news will be still be depressing as hell and people will be going crazy


Hopefully these words will help you "keep your head when all others are losing theirs."

Methinks Nouriel Roubini would like TBT as a long term investment

Just a hunch ;-)

Policies will lead to "much higher real interest rates on public debt:"

[T]he Fed, together with the Treasury, started to implement some of the “crazier” policy actions that we discussed last week: a) outright purchases of agency debt and MBS to the tune of a whopping $600 billion; b) another $200 billion of loans to backstop the consumer and small business credit markets (credit cards, auto loans, student loans, small business loans); c) an effective policy of aggressive quantitative easing as the balance sheet of the Fed – already grown from $800 billion to over $2 trillion.

Effectively the Fed Funds rate has been abandoned as a tool of monetary policy ... the Fed is now relying on massive quantitative easing and direct purchases of private sector short term and long term debts to try to aggressively push down short term and long term market rates.


Desperate times and desperate economic news require desperate policy actions ... The Treasury will be issuing in the next two years about $2 trillion of additional debt ... These policies – however partially necessary – will eventually leads to much higher real interest rates on the public debt and weaken the US dollar once this tsunami of implicit and explicit public liabilities and monetary debt driven by rising twin fiscal and current account deficits will hit a world where the global supply of savings is shrinking – as most countries moves to fiscal deficits thus reducing global savings – and foreign investors start to ponder the long term sustainability of the US domestic and external liabilities.

To continue to attract massive inflows of capital, the U.S. might have to start paying higher interest rates on the public debt. This is one of the concerns that Volcker (previous post) expressed in early 2005.

Trader Mark over at Fund My Mutual Fund has also been touting TBT as a compelling long term bet on the crumbling U.S. financial system (ie foreigners no longer willing to give the U.S. a "free ride" financially speaking)

This market is acting poorly and unless we regain S&P 770 in short order I can more downside, which could lead this trade to continue to work against those are in it. So I'm not going to begin a moderate position [in TBT] and then if the stock market recovers, the demand for bonds should ease. But if we have another crash upon a crash this will move against us.

There are also some very good reasons to own this for the very long run if you agree with some of our long term thesis - they span the same reasons that eventually the US dollar will crumble. As the US government layers on more debt, the risk to said government increases.



To compensate for said risk, creditors will demand higher yields - and prices shall fall. And we shall be creating many many treasuries in the US to pay for all the bailouts we still have to work through (I see at least a half a trillion "New Deal 2.0" stimulus plan coming in early 2009 on top of all the other measures we are doing)

So this has both short term and long term catalysts - however in the very short term as people avoid all risk, they are going to what they deem the safest thing on the planet, which they feel are US Treasuries.

Some Thanksgiving fun with James Bond...

Roger Moore and Pierce Brosnan are my two favorite Bond actors.

Legg Mason shorting opportunity...

Hat tip to Notable calls

Apparently LM's debt covenant stipulates it cannot exceed a debt/EBITDA leverage of 2.5 and giving the companies recent earnings track record (see Bill Miller's 2008 implosion). Ultimately LM could find itself in violation soon (that would cost them more than $550 million dollars..ouch)

Billion Dollar Losers...

Aside from a few genious minds, this market has made most investors suffer egregious losses. Now, I will never make excuses and try to hide from my investing mistakes (you can't learn that way), but I will occassionally try to remind myself that no one is perfect. Here's one example of a wise man who some BIG MISTAKES recently:

Sheldon Adelson (owner of Las Vegas Sands)

LOSS: $30 billion

In 2006, casino magnate Sheldon Adelson was the world's third richest man and he boldly predicted that he would soon overtake Warren Buffett and Bill Gates to ultimately claim the top spot. But the markets, like craps tables don't always behave as you'd like. The 75 year-old CEO of Las Vegas Sands saw that play out this year, as he lost $30 billion of his net worth. That's the same as losing $100 million a day, $4 million an hour or just more than $1,000 a second.


In fact, Adelson's is possibly the largest paper loss in U.S. history, even including the Rockefellers' $1 billion loss in the Great Depression, adjusted for inflation. (It's not the biggest loss worldwide, though.)

As a result of his massive losses, Adelson, who is probably best known for his Venetian casino on the Las Vegas strip, had to halt plans to expand into Macau and Singapore, which he was still pursuing a few months ago, despite the economic downturn and rivals like Steve Wynn's decisions to cut back on overseas development. Instead, he's invested nearly $1 billion of his family's money into Las Vegas Sands to stave off bankruptcy.

See the complete list here. Interestingly Adelson was #3 on this list (that means two other guys lost more than $30 billion dollars in this meltdown.

Feeling the holiday/bailout lovefest but don't overstay your welcome....

I am buying another 15% of my FXP position here at sub $ 54(Have 40% in place). Will add another 30% at sub $45 and the last 30% at sub $35 (THIS RALLY MIGHT BE POWERFUL ENOUGH TO GET US THERE!!!)

FYI The VIX is at 56'ish but IT WILL NOT GO BELOW 45 (THAT'S THE MAGINOT LINE)


Then again maybe I shouldn't use the maginot line as my metaphor for the VIX since it was ultimately flanked by the Nazi's (who invaded France through Belgium) and proved to be an ineffective/imaginary defense ;-)

P.S. Still holding onto my long term value picks: GFA, APWR, GU (added a little to this one at $2.11)

FUBAR: The FBI's 2007 agreement with the Mortgage Bankers Association

Here's the press release:

FBI ISSUES MORTGAGE FRAUD NOTICE IN CONJUNCTION WITH MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION

Washington, D.C. – Today the FBI and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) entered into an agreement to combat Mortgage Fraud.

Wow! In case you're wondering, the MBA is/was composed of: WAMU, COUNTRYWIDE, WACHOVIA, WELLS FARGO, BANK OF AMERICA, DOWNEY SAVINGS, etc.

“Mortgage Fraud is clearly becoming a problem that requires the unified efforts of law enforcement, regulators, and industry,” said Karen Spangenberg, Section Chief of the Financial Crimes Section.

Yes, mortgage fraud was becoming a problem in 2004, but who was the largest perpetrator of this fraud? Was it consumers who lied on their mortgage application? Or was it the MBA, who knew that consumers were lying to them and looked to other way? Hmmmm.....

Since September 2002, the number and types of investigations have increased from 436to 1,036. Of these current cases, 51% involve expected losses in excess of $1 million, and 57% involve our federally insured financial institutions as victims.

Yes! People like "poor" Angelo Mozilo over at Countrywide is the "victim" in all this. FYI Mozilo had collected more than 100 million since 2004 even though he was constantly a "victim" of consumer fraud.

Combatting significant fraud in this area is a priority, because mortgage lending and the housing market have a significant overall effect on the nation’s economy.

Really? The housing market has a significant overall effect on the nation's economy? Who could've thought that $10 trillion dollars in assets would be considered "significant"?

“We wish to thank the FBI for working with us to provide mortgage lenders another item in the toolbox to help combat fraud against lenders,” said John M. Robbins, CMB, Chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

We would also like to thank the FBI because they are now officially on our side and won't throw are white collar asses in jail for the criminal sh*t we just pulled on millions of Americans.

“Fraud against lenders costs the mortgage industry billions of dollars each year, affecting everyone in the mortgage process, including consumers and the communities we are trying to help build.”

Poor lenders. All you try to do is build communities and help others. Damn those fraudulent consumers, with their lying ways.

Building my 20% short position with FXP...

The 2x inverse of the FXI (Chinese ETF) just went from 183 on Oct 27th to 64.50 as of today. FXP is now sitting near a 52 week low! Does this mean the impending Global economic slowdown/collapse is over?

Of course not!


China Mobile, China Life, etc....they are all going lower. I am starting to nibble a little at FXP (25% of my 20% overall position) because we will see the FXP print $100 again.

I'd be nuts not to fade the impending Citi rally....

by letting go of some names (MOS, GFA, TNA etc.)

I will use the proceeds to hopefully pick up some TBT under 54. Maybe some DIG also on account of OPEC's meeting.

Will stay 50% long. 20% short and 30% cash.

Ah, the curse of living in interesting times.

Another reason to hate Rupert Murdoch....he'll destroy the NY Times

Apparently advertising revenues at the New York Times (my favorite paper) are down considerably and the Sulzberger family (majority shareholders) are getting worried about their waning dividend receipts (just had to cut the dividend again to preserve cash flow). Consequently, a internal family argument may ensue giving slimy a**hole Rupert Murdoch the chance to buy up the Times and then undoubtedly turn it into a cheap, tawdry publication (he's already done it to The Sunday Times in England and the New York Post).

Hat tip to 24-7 Wall Street.

Who wants to buy a troubled newspaper company with a large internet operation? Why that would be Rupert Murdoch of News Corp (NWS), who recently bought Dow Jones from another dysfunctional family. Murdoch could dump the money-losing regional newspapers NYT owns, sell-off its Internet search business, About.com, and end up with the most well-respected paper in the United States.

Murdoch has the benefit of being able to combine some back office and production facilities with his New York Post. that could save him a nice chunk of money. He might even combine some of the NYT reporting functions with the ones he has at the Journal.

And, he would be, in his old age, the King of All Media in America.

I AM SURE WE ALL HAVE OUR OWN OPINIONS OF MURDOCH BUT THIS LAUGHING ADMISSION BY RUPERT ENSURES THE MAN A PLACE IN HELL:



BY THE WAY RUPERT, IRAQ ISN'T AN "ENTERPRISE" IT'S A F**KING WAR.

Where's the market heading short term?

Given this market's bi-polar nature (intraday Fear to Greed swings are now the norm) I like using the "Fear Index" as an indicator for short term fluctuations (ie when to cover my shorts and when to nibble at some longs).

Short Term we should find ourselves range bound (we tested a breakout at 80 and failed) but there is still a clear upside bias


Longer term its obvious that the old days of 15-30 VIX levels are gone. 45 is definitely the lowest we'll ever see now in 2008 and 2009. I am so sure about 45 being the "38th parallel" that I'd love to see a jolly holiday rally at the end of 2008 to get us down there, where I would then proceed to load up on shorts, but that will definitely not happen.


Of course this is just technical analysis. We are assuming where possible support levels and resistance levels may present themselves. The operative question is whether the future economic fluctuations will give the VIX the fuel needed to boot stomp its way beyond the 80-89 level in 2009? If that happens then the market will likely be at 6000. I'll try answering that in my next post with the help of Nouriel Roubini and others.

Where's the market is heading long term?

DOWN.

Think about it:
-Unemployment hasn't peaked yet (IMO we exceed 9%) and therefore write downs and tight credit will continue and spread to normally "prime" consumers/borrowers.
-The current Congress and President are absolutely pathetic (not to mention complicit in getting us in this mess) so they won't help raise investor confidence.
-Historically this is WAAAAAYYYYY WORSE than the Tech Crash in 2000 or the Oil Crisis of the 70's. The tech crash, while painful was contained to Wall Street and CA (I am from Silicon Valley so I remember vividly) but the credit bubble was truly national - hell its even Global as Europe is now in a recession (Spain has its own housing bubble to deal with) and Asia is showing anemic growth.





Hat Tip to Ragin Cajun
and Calculated Risk

More Friday Music...

"Mr. Right" - Mickey Avalon (he's actually playing a concert in town tonight :-)

Friday music....

I'll try to make up for my egregiously pathetic blogging of late by writing up a few posts this weekend. I'll try to identify where this market is heading both short term and long term (99% sure it's down but just better be sure). This research will probably contain:

-A look at the tech patterns on the VIX (hint 80 appears to be overhead resistance)
-Tech patterns on the SP500 and DOW (long term and short term)
-Hedge Fund/Margin call status going forward
-N. Roubini thoughts and other brilliant financial minds (think opposite of Kudlow)
-Which ETF's to pick up for possible different equity scenarios
-A few additional stock screenings courtesy of FINVIZ

And whatever else I feel like writing about.

Screening Results....

More to come :-)

Some music to end the weekend...

"Ain't No Reason" - by Brett Dennen

Weekend fun...

FYI I am running stock screens over the next few days for companies that have:

-Low debt to equity ratios (they don't require vast sums of debt to operate)

-Strong current/quick ratios (they have cash and accounts receivables to fund themselves through this financial storm)

-Low P/B (they are trading considerably below their book value of equity (aka my liquidation list)

-Low P/E & PEG & EV/EBITDA (they have strong future growth prospects. However given the deteriorating global macro situation these "growth" metrics can be downwardly revised)

*I will also take into consideration buyback programs, large insider purchases, large backlogs and diversified revenue exposure*

Hopefully I'll have this list done by Tuesday.

T. Boone Pickens....asshat of the decade

Since T. Boone Pickens jumped on alt-energy (wind for electricity and nat gas for cars) everyone has been singing his praises (I think Cramer even called Boone a "patriot" on his show).

Let me make this clear: T. Boone is an a-hole and a self-serving narcissist who's short sighted policies would end up destroying America.

That's right! T. BOONE'S POLICIES WOULD PHYSICALLY DESTROY AMERICA! Not help it!

In a nutshell:

1) T. Boone's wind farms would cripple our energy grid.

Way to go ass-clown (talking to you Boone!). You built a wind farm but did nothing to help transport all that energy. You are going to overload our already ailing energy grid. This is what economists call a market externality....everyone else suffers because T. Boone decided to be a "mavericky" dick.

The New York Times, "Adding electricity from the wind and the sun could increase the frequency of blackouts and reduce the reliability of the nation’s electrical grid."

The potential fiasco can be filed under the name of plans which are too good to be true. Wind energy that destroys it own means of transportation.

2) T. Boone's nat gas solution for cars will blow up in our faces....literally!

Is Boone an Al-qaeda sleeper cell? I genuinely want to know because this idea about using compressed natural gas could result in a much larger 9-11 catastrophe. Ironic considering Boone praises his plan as solving our national security concerns as well. Asshat indeed.

Hughes said natural gas production in the United States, which had been falling for years, did rise recently after new discoveries in shale in Texas, but he wasn’t optimistic those new supplies could keep up with demands.

“If you didn’t drill any new wells, [production would drop] 32 percent,” Hughes said. “Shale gas probably needs $8 [natural] gas in order to have a decent rate of return. … I think that Pickens is probably blowing smoke.”

To keep up with a new demand for natural gas, now at $6.50 per thousand cubic feet, the United States may have to import more liquefied natural gas from overseas, which is currently selling for $16 in Japan and South Korea.

Perl said the bottled natural gas carried on ships is so explosive that flights into Boston’s Logan International Airport must be halted until the ships can release their cargo.

“You’re going to have to liquefy it and put it in on a ship that has the explosive power of the Hiroshima bomb.” Perl said. “One terrorist attack on those ships would destroy the city of Boston.”

There you have it. T. Boone's "Patriotic" solution would cripple our energy grid and destroy the city of Boston. Give this guy a medal for largest asshat ever.

Waaaayyyyy too busy!!!

There are some people in this world who can multi-task 24/7 and accomplish everything in a short amount of time. I am not one of them.

My largest holdings (from largest to smallest):

-APWR
-MOS
-SRS
-GU
-TC
-GFA

This Chinese $568 billion dollar stimulus should boost most of my Chinese and commodity picks tomorrow. If the rally holds tomorrow (ie doesn't get faded heavily) then we could see a nice week of up trading. I plan to hold on to all my stocks tomorrow, maybe even add more to GU and TC since they are ridiculously undervalued here.

The next President of the United States of America...

Position: proud American and Obama supporter

Liquidation list: Bunge

As of today Bunge (NYSE: BG) was sporting $8.7 billion dollars in total equity with a $5 billion dollar market cap = a P/B ratio of .57 => VERY CHEAP.

Of course I don't expect BG to be making 52 week highs anytime soon, but given it's stable business model (sales in fertilizers, soybeans, and vegetable oils) I don't expect it to be trading below $25.


However, there is one thing scary item I noticed during a September investor presentation was the company's need to seek re-fi and roll-over credit (to the tune of $1.5 billion):

Actions to be taken:
• Roll-over $1 billion, 364-day, revolving credit facility maturing in Nov-2008
• Refinance $500 million Notes maturing in Dec-2008

Given all that has transpired in the credit markets and economy, BG will undoubtedly face higher credit/borrowing costs resulting in more interest expenses and lower FCF. Nevertheless, BG will likely find it easier to get financing than Las Vegas Sands or General Motors. I guess we are living in an inelastic economic world for the next several years (ie food/oil rather than gambling/gas-guzzlers).

Still holding onto my BEAV position...

I could have sold into that spike up (the stock saw $13.75), but I chose not to. I genuinely believe that BEAV needs to at least trade $14.25 (roughly its book value) before I sell it.


P.S. Make sure you go out and vote tomorrow!!!

Another "liquidation list" name: Thompson Creek

I have written positively about Thompson Creek (TC) before and now TC has landed on my "liquidation list" (ie trading at a P/B ratio of less than 1). In fact, when I initially wrote about TC in August I marveled at how cheap it was:

TC's 2009 EPS growth is around 40% (it's forward PE is less than 8!). I like stocks with these types of margins of safety; I mean what's it going to do? Trade down to a 5 PE? TC is not Wamu or Citigroup :-)

Interestingly, using a VERY CONSERVATIVE forward EPS estimate of $1.75 the stock finds itself trading at an obscene P/E ratio of 3.5! In case you're wondering, a $1.75 2009 EPS estimate implies a 22% DROP in earnings even though the underlying mineral that TC mines (molybdenum) is still trading well above $20 dollars a pound as of Friday.

This fact hasn't been lost on the TC's management, who announced a massive stock buyback plan in September:

Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. (the "Company"), one of the world's largest, publicly traded, pure molybdenum producers, today announced that the Toronto Stock Exchange (the "TSX") has accepted the Company's Notice of Intention to make a Normal Course Issuer Bid (the "Bid") to purchase for cancellation, from time to time, as the Company considers advisable, its issued and outstanding common shares (the "Shares"). There are 125,046,072 Shares issued and outstanding on the date hereof. Of this amount, 123,066,702 constitute "public float" calculated in accordance with the rules of the TSX. The Company intends to purchase for cancellation up to a maximum of 12,300,000 Shares, being approximately 10% of the Company's "public float" outstanding on the date hereof. Of this amount, the Company may make purchases under the Bid of up to 6,252,303 Shares through the facilities of the New York Stock Exchange (the "NYSE"). The daily trading limit is 986,669 Shares until October 2, 2008, unless further extended, and 246,667 Shares thereafter, subject to block purchase exceptions. The Company plans to fund its share purchases under the Bid from free cash flow. The Company has not purchased any of its Shares during the preceding 12 months pursuant to a normal course issuer bid.

Purchases under the Bid may commence on September 29, 2008 and may be made until September 28, 2009, or such earlier time as the Bid is completed or terminated at the option of the Company. Purchases will be made on the open market through the facilities of the TSX in accordance with its policies and may also be made through the facilities of the NYSE in accordance with its rules. The price to be paid will be the market price at the time of acquisition.

The Company believes that from time to time its Shares have been trading at prices that do not reflect the underlying value of the Company. As a result, the Company believes that its Shares are a good investment at their current and recent trading prices and that the purchase of its Shares will help create value for its shareholders.

Here's the best part of Thompson Creek's stock buyback: TC is using the money it raised from a June 2008 stock offering (this when the stock was trading above $21 dollars a share!)

Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. (the "Company") announces that it has closed its previously announced "bought deal" equity financing for aggregate gross proceeds of C$215,000,000. A syndicate of underwriters, co-led by GMP Securities L.P. and UBS Securities Canada Inc., and including Scotia Capital Inc., Cormark Securities Inc., Desjardins Securities Inc., Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd., Blackmont Capital Inc., Paradigm Capital Inc. and Versant Partners Inc. (collectively, the "Underwriters"), purchased 10,000,000 common shares of the Company at a price of C$21.50 per share. The Underwriters have an option, exercisable in whole or in part at any time up to 30 days after the closing of the offering, to purchase up to an additional 1,000,000 common shares. In the event that the option is exercised in its entirety, the additional proceeds would be C$21,500,000.

This means TC management perfectly timed this market (ie selling high and buying low). Here's the breakdown: in June, TC sold/raised $215,000,000 dollars of stock (issuing 10,000,000 shares x $21.50 a share) and now TC is buying back its sold shares at <$10 a share (TC is currently trading below $6 as I write this). Assuming TC buys all 12.3 million at $10 a share (very conservative estimate again) that means TC's perfect market timing netted their shareholders a profit of around $92,000,000 (almost $1 per share) in less than 6 months! Did I already mention the stock is trading at less than book value...yeah I am going to buy some TC on Monday ;-)

BEAV catalyst has occurred. Now will it rally?

The 27,000 member machinist union has overwhelmingly approved the new compensation plan offered by Boeing, and now the AERO industry can get back to work (this strike has lasted 8 weeks, which is pretty lengthy). In theory, this news should bode well for BEAV, which supplies Boeing with seats and other interior cabin items (I picked up a nice chunk of BEAV stock on Friday). Of course, the market could have already priced in the good news considering BEAV's stock movement on Wednesday and Thursday (the stock rallied from around $9 to more than $12 over that time). I guess we will see on Monday ;-)