Of course I don't expect BG to be making 52 week highs anytime soon, but given it's stable business model (sales in fertilizers, soybeans, and vegetable oils) I don't expect it to be trading below $25.
However, there is one thing scary item I noticed during a September investor presentation was the company's need to seek re-fi and roll-over credit (to the tune of $1.5 billion):
Actions to be taken:
• Roll-over $1 billion, 364-day, revolving credit facility maturing in Nov-2008
• Refinance $500 million Notes maturing in Dec-2008
Given all that has transpired in the credit markets and economy, BG will undoubtedly face higher credit/borrowing costs resulting in more interest expenses and lower FCF. Nevertheless, BG will likely find it easier to get financing than Las Vegas Sands or General Motors. I guess we are living in an inelastic economic world for the next several years (ie food/oil rather than gambling/gas-guzzlers).
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