Friday, November 28, 2008

Still a bear market but this rally could have legs...

I am still expecting some resistance at the SPY 91.5-92.0 region and a pullback that will snap this rally's winning streak. With that said, the market is still down more than 35% YTD so I wouldn't be surprised to see this rally continue throughout the holiday season. Even some notable short sellers are getting exposure to the long side:

Well-regarded short-seller James Montier has "Never Been More Bullish" according to Bloomberg. So what is he buying? Let's review his shopping list.

S&P 500 stocks that Montier characterizes as “deep value opportunities” based on profit and dividend yields, debt levels and price relative to earnings, here is the list:

Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI)
Carnival Corp. (CCL)
Chevron Corp. (CVX)
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Cummins Inc. (CMI)
Dow Chemical Co. (DOW)
Gap Inc. (GPS)
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)
Ingersoll-Rand Co. (IR)
KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC)
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO)
Molex Inc. (MOLX)
Nucor Corp. (NUE)
Tesoro Corp. (TSO)
Valero Energy Corp. (VLO)

Those tickers listed alone:
ATI,CCL, CVX, COP, CMI, DOW, GPS, ITW, IR, KLAC, MRO, MOLX, NUE, TSO, VLO

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is “distinctly cheap” because it trades for 15.4 times the 10-year moving average of its companies’ profits, compared with an average of 18 for the U.S. market since 1881, London-based Montier wrote in a research note today. Fifteen stocks in the U.S. index, from Chevron Corp. to Gap Inc., pass his test for “deep value,” while a tenth of shares in Europe and a fifth in Asia qualify.

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