My thoughts on the market and oil...

don't matter. As Brian Shannon over at Alphatrends says: "The market doesn't care what you think." I know that's an obvious statement but it's important to stay humble and recognize that the market acts differently than you. The market is an irrational entity trading 99.99% of the time on fear and greed (markets are only efficient in the long run).

So with that said, I abdicate my thoughts on the market to who else but the market makers (aka the big funds and institutions that push stocks/commodities up and down). Are they right all the time? Of course not; but if you read enough research reports and stick with the most successfull groups you'll be right more often than you'll be wrong. Remember, even the best baseball players connect 30% of the time when they hit (I go with the baseball metaphor, because that's what Buffett chooses).

So here are some oil thoughts from Goldman Sachs. Why Goldman? Because they are one of the few market makers who have actually been right lately. It seems like all the other big players got too fat and happy and forgot that groupthink is bad for business. That's a $500 billion dollar psychology lesson.

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs reiterates their call for $149 by years end.

"Although the recent correlation in dollar and oil prices is clear, it is important to emphasise that each of these assets are driven by multiple, varying factors ... Put differently, there is more to oil than the U.S. dollar and vice versa."

Let's not forget that China also took several million cars off the road for their Olympic preparations these past few weeks. Is it a coincidence that oil prices collapsed around the same time? I think not.