Friday, October 31, 2008

Liquidation watch list...CETV

I am running screens to find stocks that are trading below their liquidation value (ie lower than Book Value). In this market/economy many of the stocks trading at P/B's <1 are probably going to die, but there are some stocks that are solid cash flow generating value picks (ie they have decent business models with large enough moats to stay alive during this financial meltdown).


One stock that stands out to me is Central European Media Enterprises (CETV). Yes, I know Europe is falling apart just like the U.S. and I know the Internet will ultimately replace TV in the future, yet CETV has a liquidation value of $39 a share but is currently trading at well below $30!

In case you are unfamiliar with CETV here's their company profile (courtesy of google finance/Reuters):

Central European Media Enterprises Ltd. (CETV) invests in, develops and operates commercial television channels in Central and Eastern Europe. As of December 31, 2007, the Company had operations in Croatia, the Czech Republic, Romania, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia and Ukraine. Its assets are held through a series of Dutch and Netherlands Antilles holding companies. In each market, in which the Company operates, it has ownership interests in license companies and operating companies. Operations are conducted either by the license companies themselves or by separate operating companies. CETV generates revenues primarily through acquiring programming for broadcast by the corresponding license company and entering into agreements with advertisers and advertising agencies on behalf of the license company. Other than in Slovenia, the license company also acts as an operating company. On October 17, 2008, the Company completed the purchase of the remaining 10% of the Studio 1+1 group


I also like that CETV has no direct Russian exposure (Putin is one gangster motherf**ker) but Russia could still invade any of those former Soviet satellite Republics. Returning to the numbers, CETV did just report a shitty quarter (like I said, their business is in Europe), but top line growth was still respectable (up %15 qoq). The company also guided down EBITDA forecasts from $425 million to $370 million but I am pretty sure that doesn't justify a stock trading 30% below its liquidation value.

POSITION: None....yet

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