Friday, December 12, 2008

Another neutral day for the portfolio and surprisingly for the market...

There was soooo much bad news for the markets today (stalled bailout plans for Detroit and Maddow defrauding investors out of billions) but amazingly the bulls fought their way back.

Essentially anyone who claims the have an edge in this market is full of sh*t (or they have Hank Paulson on speed dail). This market is being driven by so many factors its hard to keep track of them all, hence you cannot possibly know what to expect.

One thing is for sure, the news coming out is getting worse (eg: CA is bankrupt, Ecuador is bankrupt, unemployment surging nationally, BOA job cuts, credit card lines getting pulled, China/India slowdown, etc.) which means the "Wall of Worry" will eventually grow too large for the bulls to climb.

Considering the bulls' burden of proof is growing by the hour, I continue to remain overall bearish (we will remain in this primary downtrend, although our rate of descent may slow now). However, short term I will start liquidating my current neutral 50% long/50% short strategy in order to raise more cash (around 40%). That way when we stop churning in this range, I can pounce on the next big move (either up or down) because then I will have an edge.

1 comment:

Mark said...

this game is so rigged for big boys

Now we see why Pershing Square was happily buying GGP in the $0.50s

Of course they got refinanced today, unlike a lot of other companies like Pilgrims Pride which went BK. Of course they knew which one would get refinanced and not be forced into BK. Just follow Ackman into whatever he buys. Guys like him apparently know what levers to pull to make sure their investments work out.