Sunday, December 21, 2008

Some good news, but more bad news



Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco says "I'm more bullish short-term — valuations have been knocked down."

The strategist also cited falling commodity prices, which reduces companies' input costs (and she's not worried about deflation), as well as mass layoffs, which can boost the bottom line. (yeah, but higher unemployment means fewer potential customers and lower future sales).

Having said that, Garnick is restrained in her enthusiasm for stocks in the short term because of still elevated levels of volatility (as measured by the VIX) and in the longer term because of what she calls "the next two crises":

1) Municipalities facing budget shortfalls because of reduced tax revenues.
2) Social Security funds being depleted even before Baby Boomers start to retire en masse.


Regarding volatility, Garnick notes that if the S&P is at 900 and the VIX at 50 (current levels are 899 and 54, respectively), the market is pricing in a two-thirds chance the index will trade between 770-1,029 over the next 30 days.

"Now is one of the most difficult times to make a commitment" to stocks, but "it's a good time for active managers who can handpick the winners and losers," she said. (I agree...you can't be a long term investor in this market when you have 10% intraday market swings. You have to take profits and cut losses when you can.)

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