I lost a mere .25% today but I didn't get to participate in this rally. Boo hoo :-(
Frankly, I don't care because I knew coming in today that I had NO EDGE WHATSOEVER! Remember this game is rigged (very much like a casino) and I am not about to waste my money at a goddamn casino!
Disagree? Ok, let me ask you...Who the f**k knew that the market would shake off Goldman's terrible miss and bid it up 10 points today? Also, do you think this will be Goldman's only bad quarter? Given growing unemployment, lack of stabilization in credit, global growth slowdown, etc., aren't there more bad quarters to come from GS? Of course GS is VERY WELL connected to the government, so maybe they will survive...but once again, that's because the game is rigged.
Or what about the Fed meeting today. Everyone knew the Fed would do something "dramatic" with a massive cut so wasn't it already priced in? Apparently not. Of course, an important question is how is libor looking? Not good at all, last time I checked libor mattered a whole lot to the credit markets.
The biggest fear every investor on the sideline has is: "Oh no I missed the bottom."
I used to think that way all the time and that mindset will get you killed because picking a bottom is a fools game (albeit very enticing and lucrative).
Rather than looking in hindsight, you should care about the future events that will drive this market higher/lower. I have been and will continue to compile a list of events that I believe this market will "eventually" care about. I say eventually because I don't know when the "casino bosses and players" will wake up and decide that $2 trillion in credit card lines matter, or that 9% unemployment matters, or that the demise of the extravagant American way of life matters.
But I have gone out and educated myself on all these issues, and have made my decisions. Here they are: In the short term, I will continue to be mostly neutral, with an occasional long or short bias in my overall asset allocation. But my long term position is to short this motherf**king market down to the ground because I believe the FUTURE EVENTS that will arise will warrant it. There is no doubt that this type of transition will be difficult to pull off but I have enough confidence to say that "This was not the bottom" and that we shall see more pain ahead.
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2 comments:
haha yea i feel ya on the frustration part. thats why we've gone to the extent to track hedge funds and institutions so extensively. they control so much of the capital flow that you almost have to.
blog's shaping up nicely, keep it up
Very true. It's clear fundies don't matter until the "market makers" decide they do. Now we see hedge funds scrambling to "lock up" investors...very interesting. Nevertheless, even hedge fund manipulation must succumb to the laws of gravity eventually (Boone Pickens' fund is a good example). At the end of the day institutions and funds follow the macro data just like every other investor.
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