Thursday, February 5, 2009

Remember that the market is irrational...

That's why I've been 60% in cash, 20% long and 20% short for a while now.

On this side we have very dire economic news:

New jobless claims jumped far more than expected last week in an already dismal labor market, and there's no relief in sight for workers as mass layoffs persist. The Labor Department reported Thursday that the number of newly jobless workers seeking benefits rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 626,000, from the previous week's upwardly revised figure of 591,000. The latest total is far more than analysts' expectations of 583,000.

Economists expect the government to issue a grim report Friday that will show the unemployment rate rose to 7.5 percent in January, up from 7.2 percent in December. That would be the highest rate in 17 years.

Yet the market is rallying because the stimulus will likely be passed.

A group of 16 senators was meeting today behind closed doors to hammer out a package of cuts. According to Collins, R-Maine, the group achieved an "in-depth scrubbing of the bill, going line by line item by item."

Emerging from the meeting for a midday break, Sen. Joe Lieberman said the group of Democrats and five Republicans were at a "breakthrough" moment.

Ohio Sen. George Voinovich, one of the moderate Republicans who participated in the closed-door meeting, told ABC News he expects the group to get behind lowering the overall size of the bill to $750 billion.



Stay patient and wait for the TA action to confirm a market breakout above SPY 850...but don't chase. Wait for the inevitable pullback to the support point (remember resistance [850 on SPY] becomes potential support for a continued uptrend).

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