Thin-film solar production is expected to double in each of the next three years to reach 4.18 gigawatts worth of equipment in 2010, according to a report to be released by Greentech Media and the Prometheus Institute on Tuesday.
Apparently this new supply figure was upwardly revised:
The forecast represents a 65 percent increase from the companies' previous projection 18 months ago, according to the report. The authors also forecast that production will continue to grow, reaching almost 10 gigawatts in 2012.
A big reason I like this study is because they went through more than 100 solar companies and approached the problem from bottom-up approach:
The projections are based on a survey of 137 companies. According to the report, at least 143 companies were participating in thin-film solar as of July, with nearly 40 companies entering the space in 2007 and an additional 23 companies joining the movement in the beginning of this year. This implies that nonparticipating companies, as well as new companies yet to enter the field, could end up pushing the numbers even higher.
The sheer lack of barriers to entry right now in solar is astonishing:
All together, Grama and Bradford expect only eight of 144 firms to reach "significant production" – defined as more than 25 megawatts of production – this year, increasing to around 30 companies by 2010.
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